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Yet Another 3-3 Fit

10 8 7
A J
K 10 8 2
A K 7 6
Q 6 4 3
9 8 3
Q J 6
Q 8 3
 
K J 5
Q 10 6 2
5 3
J 10 9 4
A 9 2
K 7 5 4
A 9 7 4
5 2
North/South can only make one game contract, 4 by South.
The key problem for the defense first is that a trump lead from West weakens the trump suit. It seems like it doesn't weaken it enough to really give up any defensive tricks, but it does.
The easy case is if West leads the Q. Then South wins and takes the first 11 tricks, ruffing two clubs in hand and two hearts in dummy. West's small trumps are just too weak.
It's a little harder to figure out if West leads a low spade.
East must play an honor when West leads a low spade. South wins the ace, wins two clubs and ruffs a club, crosses a heart, and ruffs another club at this position with West still to play:
10 8
A J
K 10 8 2
7
Q 6 4
9 8 3
Q J 6
 
K 5
Q 10 6 2
5 3
J
9
K 7 5 4
A 9 7 4
If West overruffs, he is losing his long trump trick in scoring his natural high trump trick. Say he then continues a spade, to keep North/South from ruffing two hearts in North. East wins and then what? North/South have two heart stoppers and time to set up a diamond. The defense gets a diamond and two trumps.
If West pitches a diamond, declarer can take two hearts, two diamonds, and a heart ruff for the tenth trick.
If West pitches a heart, then declarer takes two top hearts and leads a heart at this position, with West to play:
10 8
K 10 8 2
Q 6 4
Q J 6
 
K 5
Q 10
5 3
7 5
A 9 7 4
Declarer always gets three tricks. From here.
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Thomas Andrews (bridge@thomasoandrews.com), © 1999-2014.
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