Hand Evaluation Articles
This is a collection of articles which explore hand evaluation using what was,
at the start, a new technique. Due to the revolution in
the ability for computers to solve full double-dummy problems, we
can generate huge data sets and start to investigate the value of hand
shapes and suit holdings in some objective fashion.
I also discuss the reasons to distrust double dummy data, and explain oddities
in the data that may surprise you.
Single Hand Evaluator My original article, which estimates how many tricks
you expect to be able to take (double dummy), looking at
your own hand.
Binky Points: An Additive Evaluator This uses the data from the previous article to determine
an evaluator which is "additive," that is, which is defined
so that the sum of the value of your hand and the value of partner's hand
approximates the number of tricks available.
After Partner Opens 1♠ and you have a fit
A rough draft with some raw data. When you have a fit after partner opens 1♠, how does
that affect the Binky Points suit evaluation of your hand?
Misunderstanding Binky Points
A poster on the BBO discussion board think there are obvious flaws in Binky Points, but he is just
misunderstanding the values.
Testing Binky Points
Comparing Binky Points to other evaluators.
A ridiculously detailed look at 3-5pt hands opposite a strong 2NT opener, and when it pays off to be in 3NT.
The Stiff Queen: And Other Binky Points Oddities
Binky Points gives the value of a stiff queen as worth 0.25 tricks more than a small stiff in suit contracts, even though the single-hand evaluator gives a difference of only 0.08. What gives?
Aces and Spaces: Checking Binky Points
Examining balanced hands with four aces and no other high cards or
Card Values for Three Notrump
Another approach to valuations - targeted for three notrump. Is
this the revenge of Milton Work?
Experts and 4333 Patterns
In a discussion on Usenet, there was some usage of my data to contradict
expert practice to treat 4333 patterns as negative for notrump play. This is
an example of a bad use of my data.
Conclusions and Warnings
Some conclusions, and some attempts to avoid jumping to conclusions.
High Card Points versus Binky Points
Noting that one high card point is worth approximately 1/2 a trick in notrump and 1/3 a trick in suit contracts, and looking at 'refined' values for holdings from a HCP viewpoint.
An Interactive Evaluator Allows you to try out various evaluators online.
Problems with using double dummy data There are problems using double dummy data when building
Problems with using single dummy data Some people suggest using single dummy data as the answer to the problem of double dummy analysis. Single dummy data, however, has its own set of problems.
Cowan's 5-4-3-2-1 Result
Richard Cowan determined that trick values for honors down to the
ten correspond fairly closely to 5-4-3-2-1. What's wrong with this
NT tricks taken, by holding
NT tricks taken, by hand pattern
NT tricks taken, by suit length
Suit tricks taken, by holding
Suit tricks taken, by hand pattern
Suit tricks taken, by suit length
Binky Points Data
I recently regenerated the Binky Points values from a bigger set of data. There were only minor difference except for very long suits where I had little data before.
Binky Value of Holdings [ old data]
Binky Value of Patterns [ old data]
Tysen's TSP Evaluator
Tysen started with two articles on evolving Binky points with the auction, then proposes in this article a 6-4-2-1 variation.
Wikipedia article on hand evaluation
Gordon Bower's Research
Gordon has done some interesting research using double-dummy techniques.
I am going to try an experiment using Disqus to facilitate
commenting here. Might work, might not. Keep it clean and fun, and
I'll see if spam is an issue.
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